While reading today’s newspapers, an interesting trend caught my eye. Most newspapers in India are left-leaning, so election results are primarily presented in a way that props up the left-leaning parties. For example, “NC got a thumping victory,” in contrast to a more subdued “BJP earned a hat-trick in Haryana.” No fancy adjectives. Another example is “J&K has rejected BJP’s politics” while failing to report that BJP’s vote share has been increasing in J&K with every passing election. In some newspapers, Vinesh Phogat’s win was highlighted more than the overall performances of individual parties.

The election results declared on 8^th October have been filled with surprises. However, due to the media’s own biased leanings, not every fact made it to the papers. Here are some of the top surprises from the Haryana and J&K Elections 2024.

BJP getting more seats than Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP in J&K

From a party that used to get single-digit votes in Kashmir, BJP’s vote count has now risen to four digits. The party came second in J&K, beating Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP.

PDP is an indigenous Kashmiri political party. The party has been on the political scene in Kashmir for ages. This time, most of the PDP’s votes went to NC in the Kashmir region. PDP’s association with the BJP in the recent past proved to be its undoing. Interestingly, this camaraderie did not have the same effect on the BJP, as its vote share increased from the 2014 elections.

No one, including BJP members, ever countered the fact that BJP would not win a single seat in Kashmir. It was reported that even the people of Jammu, along with Kashmiri Pandits, BJP’s primary vote base, were dissatisfied with the saffron party as their demands were left unaddressed.

Considering that politicians like Omar Abdullah were saying there was intense anger brewing in the valley beneath the surface of peace and tranquility, it was surprising to see the BJP not only increase its number of seats without an alliance but also its overall vote share in J&K albeit marginally, as compared to the 2014 elections.

If we were to analyze just Kashmir alone, the BJP neither lost nor gained its vote share (2.2%) in the region. So, in summary, the BJP increased its seats/vote share in Jammu while maintaining its vote share in Kashmir. If the Abrogation of Section 370 was indeed a major point of discontent for J&K locals, we should have seen a drastic decrease in BJP’s seat count/vote share. But that’s not what happened.

The media and politicians might paint the Kashmir election results as a big loss for the BJP and a “befitting reply to BJP by the people for the Abrogation of 370”, but the data seems to indicate otherwise. Yes, they did not win a seat, but the fact that in many seats of Muslim-dominated Kashmir, BJP came second, beating Congress and PDP, implies there’s far more to the story than what meets the eye.  

BJP losing Gurez in Baramulla by a mere 1132 votes

Gurez is a seat that is 98% Muslim and where the BJP did not have any presence till now. Faqeer Mohammad Khan from the BJP lost by a mere 1132 votes to NC’s Nazir Ahmad Khan.

This close contest has been the biggest shocker from the Kashmir region, considering the BJP is always portrayed as an “anti-Muslim” party.

BJP’s Shagun Parihar winning Muslim-dominated Kishtwar seat

There is a misconception that Jammu is a “Hindu-only” area and Kashmir is a “Muslim-only” area. Jammu has areas with a significant Muslim population. One such area is Kishtwar, a district that has long been a hotbed of militant activities.

Shagun’s father and uncle were murdered by Hizbul Mujahideen terrorists in 2018. She initially had no plan to join politics, but after the murder of her father and uncle, she felt the need to bring about a change. Her victory, albeit by a small margin, proved to be sweet revenge.

Speaking to the media after the verdict, she said: “We have lost a large number of our soldiers. I have lost my father, and some have lost their brothers and sons. My first effort will be to ensure that every child here has the shadow of a father over his head and that there is peace and prosperity in the area. My efforts will be to bring happiness to every home.”

Jamaat-e-Islami and former separatists faced a big loss in J&K

When members from banned radical groups like Jamaat-e-Islami and former separatists were allowed to contest this election individually, many were worried.

As Kashmir continues to be a sensitive zone, analysts questioned the motive behind this move and the consequences of having radical elements elected into power. However, the people of J&K answered this pressing question through their votes, resoundingly rejecting the radicals and choosing a party like the National Conference instead, which believes in working democratically within the rules of the Indian constitution. This has come as a relief for many, especially since Engineer Rashid was elected as MP in the Lok Sabha elections.

The loss of Engineer Rashid’s party in the J&K election has provided ample proof that his victory in the Lok Sabha elections was a case of sympathy voting. His sons had extensively campaigned for him before general elections, saying the only way their father could escape jail was if he became an MP. However, in the case of the J&K elections, Kashmiris seemed to have drawn a line, and Rashid was unable to replicate his victorious stint in the general elections.

Congress in a way lost both Haryana and J&K

Even though Congress is an ally of the NC in J&K, their standalone performance proved to be lackluster. Congress managed to earn only 6 seats in J&K, compared to BJP’s 29. This cannot be considered a victory for Congress. In Jammu, too, an area where they were stationed to put up a strong fight against the BJP, they managed to win only one seat.

NC leader Omar Abdullah admitted post-election that, in hindsight, the alliance was unnecessary as they would have won the election anyway without the help of Congress.

Haryana outcome

Haryana’s election results came as a shock to everyone, including right-wingers. The trend was overwhelmingly leaning towards anti-incumbency in the state. BJP has been ruling Haryana for over a decade, and there were a plethora of issues surrounding “farmers, soldiers, and wrestlers” plaguing the state.

However, around a month back, it was reported that the non-Jats were having second thoughts about Jats supporting Congress and gaining power. This led to a consolidation of non-Jat votes against Congress. It is a simple case of caste-based politics gone wrong for the party.

RSS played a huge role in BJP’s victory

Reportedly, RSS went above and beyond in Haryana, campaigning door to door, distributing pamphlets that highlighted the dangers of caste-based divisive politics, ensuring everyone got their voter slips on time, and organizing outreach programs.

In the Lok Sabha Elections, it was reported that there had been a fallout between the BJP and RSS, which led to RSS members not making any effort to help the BJP. BJP seems to have realized its blunder post-election and made a conscious effort to re-establish connection with RSS, which is undeniably its backbone. Several changes were made in Haryana based on RSS’ recommendations. It ended up proving effective.

Conclusion

Yet again, Exit polls in India have turned out to be a disaster. You never know what the janta is thinking. There are silent voters who make their stance known only through their votes. Exit polls have been unable to infiltrate that section.

One thing is clear: this election has been a big win for democracy, especially in the Kashmir valley. The turnout was impressive. The trust they placed in the Indian democratic process is noteworthy. As Modi mentioned, the peaceful conduct of the J&K election has proven to be a victory in itself.