Why are South Indian leaders, like Stalin and Chandrababu Naidu, all of a sudden, pushing women to have more children? It’s not to combat the aging population as they make it seem. It’s all politics!
In India, there’s something called Delimitation. It’s a process of redrawing the boundaries of constituencies based on population. States with more population will get more constituencies, whereas those with low populations, like southern states, will get fewer seats. Basically, the exercise is to ensure each constituency has an equal number of people.
Since South India’s population growth is decreasing, plus migration, it won’t need as many constituencies. The total number of constituencies in Lok Sabha has been frozen since the 70s and is in place until 2026. 2026 is almost here! This is why politicians in South India are worried about women not having enough children. They don’t want to lose their seats.
As per The Hindu newspaper, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra + Telangana, all of which are South Indian states, stand to lose 8 seats each, if the current number of seats in Lok Sabha (543) is maintained.
We can expect Pinarayi Vijayan, the CM of Kerala, to make a similar statement next.
While reading today’s newspapers, an interesting trend caught my eye. Most newspapers in India are left-leaning, so election results are primarily presented in a way that props up the left-leaning parties. For example, “NC got a thumping victory,” in contrast to a more subdued “BJP earned a hat-trick in Haryana.” No fancy adjectives. Another example is “J&K has rejected BJP’s politics” while failing to report that BJP’s vote share has been increasing in J&K with every passing election. In some newspapers, Vinesh Phogat’s win was highlighted more than the overall performances of individual parties.
The election results declared on 8th October have been filled with surprises. However, due to the media’s own biased leanings, not every fact made it to the papers. Here are some of the top surprises from the Haryana and J&K Elections 2024.
BJP getting more seats than Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP in J&K
From a party that used to get single-digit votes in Kashmir, BJP’s vote count has now risen to four digits. The party came second in J&K, beating Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP.
PDP is an indigenous Kashmiri political party. The party has been on the political scene in Kashmir for ages. This time, most of the PDP’s votes went to NC in the Kashmir region. PDP’s association with the BJP in the recent past proved to be its undoing. Interestingly, this camaraderie did not have the same effect on the BJP, as its vote share increased from the 2014 elections.
Courtesy: The Hindu
No one, including BJP members, ever countered the fact that BJP would not win a single seat in Kashmir. It was reported that even the people of Jammu, along with Kashmiri Pandits, BJP’s primary vote base, were dissatisfied with the saffron party as their demands were left unaddressed.
Considering that politicians like Omar Abdullah were saying there was intense anger brewing in the valley beneath the surface of peace and tranquility, it was surprising to see the BJP not only increase its number of seats without an alliance but also its overall vote share in J&K albeit marginally, as compared to the 2014 elections.
If we were to analyze just Kashmir alone, the BJP neither lost nor gained its vote share (2.2%) in the region. So, in summary, the BJP increased its seats/vote share in Jammu while maintaining its vote share in Kashmir. If the Abrogation of Section 370 was indeed a major point of discontent for J&K locals, we should have seen a drastic decrease in BJP’s seat count/vote share. But that’s not what happened.
Courtesy: The Hindu
The media and politicians might paint the Kashmir election results as a big loss for the BJP and a “befitting reply to BJP by the people for the Abrogation of 370”, but the data seems to indicate otherwise. Yes, they did not win a seat, but the fact that in many seats of Muslim-dominated Kashmir, BJP came second, beating Congress and PDP, implies there’s far more to the story than what meets the eye.
BJP losing Gurez in Baramulla by a mere 1132 votes
Gurez is a seat that is 98% Muslim and where the BJP did not have any presence till now. Faqeer Mohammad Khan from the BJP lost by a mere 1132 votes to NC’s Nazir Ahmad Khan.
This close contest has been the biggest shocker from the Kashmir region, considering the BJP is always portrayed as an “anti-Muslim” party.
There is a misconception that Jammu is a “Hindu-only” area and Kashmir is a “Muslim-only” area. Jammu has areas with a significant Muslim population. One such area is Kishtwar, a district that has long been a hotbed of militant activities.
Shagun’s father and uncle were murdered by Hizbul Mujahideen terrorists in 2018. She initially had no plan to join politics, but after the murder of her father and uncle, she felt the need to bring about a change. Her victory, albeit by a small margin, proved to be sweet revenge.
Speaking to the media after the verdict, she said: “We have lost a large number of our soldiers. I have lost my father, and some have lost their brothers and sons. My first effort will be to ensure that every child here has the shadow of a father over his head and that there is peace and prosperity in the area. My efforts will be to bring happiness to every home.”
Jamaat-e-Islami and former separatists faced a big loss in J&K
When members from banned radical groups like Jamaat-e-Islami and former separatists were allowed to contest this election individually, many were worried.
As Kashmir continues to be a sensitive zone, analysts questioned the motive behind this move and the consequences of having radical elements elected into power. However, the people of J&K answered this pressing question through their votes, resoundingly rejecting the radicals and choosing a party like the National Conference instead, which believes in working democratically within the rules of the Indian constitution. This has come as a relief for many, especially since Engineer Rashid was elected as MP in the Lok Sabha elections.
The loss of Engineer Rashid’s party in the J&K election has provided ample proof that his victory in the Lok Sabha elections was a case of sympathy voting. His sons had extensively campaigned for him before general elections, saying the only way their father could escape jail was if he became an MP. However, in the case of the J&K elections, Kashmiris seemed to have drawn a line, and Rashid was unable to replicate his victorious stint in the general elections.
Congress in a way lost both Haryana and J&K
Even though Congress is an ally of the NC in J&K, their standalone performance proved to be lackluster. Congress managed to earn only 6 seats in J&K, compared to BJP’s 29. This cannot be considered a victory for Congress. In Jammu, too, an area where they were stationed to put up a strong fight against the BJP, they managed to win only one seat.
NC leader Omar Abdullah admitted post-election that, in hindsight, the alliance was unnecessary as they would have won the election anyway without the help of Congress.
Haryana outcome
Haryana’s election results came as a shock to everyone, including right-wingers. The trend was overwhelmingly leaning towards anti-incumbency in the state. BJP has been ruling Haryana for over a decade, and there were a plethora of issues surrounding “farmers, soldiers, and wrestlers” plaguing the state.
However, around a month back, it was reported that the non-Jats were having second thoughts about Jats supporting Congress and gaining power. This led to a consolidation of non-Jat votes against Congress. It is a simple case of caste-based politics gone wrong for the party.
Courtesy: The Hindu
RSS played a huge role in BJP’s victory
Reportedly, RSS went above and beyond in Haryana, campaigning door to door, distributing pamphlets that highlighted the dangers of caste-based divisive politics, ensuring everyone got their voter slips on time, and organizing outreach programs.
In the Lok Sabha Elections, it was reported that there had been a fallout between the BJP and RSS, which led to RSS members not making any effort to help the BJP. BJP seems to have realized its blunder post-election and made a conscious effort to re-establish connection with RSS, which is undeniably its backbone. Several changes were made in Haryana based on RSS’ recommendations. It ended up proving effective.
Conclusion
Yet again, Exit polls in India have turned out to be a disaster. You never know what the janta is thinking. There are silent voters who make their stance known only through their votes. Exit polls have been unable to infiltrate that section.
One thing is clear: this election has been a big win for democracy, especially in the Kashmir valley. The turnout was impressive. The trust they placed in the Indian democratic process is noteworthy. As Modi mentioned, the peaceful conduct of the J&K election has proven to be a victory in itself.
I’ve always viewed Hinduism as a mainstream religion. However, I recently learned that there are people, especially outside India, who consider Hinduism as “pagan.” Surprisingly, even within India, some Hindus refer to themselves as “the last polytheistic pagans remaining on earth.”
However, an article on Scroll by Arvind Sharma presented an interesting explanation of why Hinduism cannot be considered Pagan.
This pluralistic nature of Hinduism could explain why India, a Hindu-majority country, is able to embrace the beliefs of diverse communities. Communal clashes happen, but everyone is free to complain. There is no existential threat. The freedom to complain is in itself an underrated freedom. People in several countries cannot question their government or the majority religion. Sadly, we often take this freedom for granted.
Currently, there is no self-declared Hindu nation; all nations with a Hindu majority identify as secular. Even if a country were to declare itself a “Hindu nation” in the future, the principle of secularism would likely endure, as the idea of secularism is deeply embedded within Hinduism itself. So, a Hindu nation will not be one that would force people into converting to Hinduism, but one that is already in effect and on full display in Hindu-majority nations. Take the case of India. LGBT couples can have a joint bank account in India, abortion is legal, and atheism is tolerated. You are free to worship your god, not worship a god, or go to any religious place of your choice. No one is going to force you to wear a religious symbol or yank it off you.
Is India perfect? Definitely not. It’s like any other pluralistic nation. There is discrimination, but not to the extent the media, especially Western media, reports. Some even peddle fake news as the reality, without hearing both sides of the story.
The problem with religious propaganda is that it attracts the wrong kind of people. Recently, Rahul Gandhi said that Sikhs are unable to practice their religion freely in India. This came as a shock to many, including Sikhs in the country, as there have been no such allegations in the last decade from the community. However, the leader of a separatist group was happy and quoted Rahul’s words to reinforce the group’s agenda to form an independent nation for Sikhs that spans parts of India. Similarly, allegations against India of being Islamophobic have triggered radical Islamist groups like ISIS. The group frequently references India (particularly Hindus) in their newsletters, using the country’s internal clashes to advance its agenda and emphasize to its followers the need for “disciplining” us.
Seeking justice is acceptable. However, I hope people, especially Indians, are mindful of exaggerating communal events in the country, as they often end up catching the attention of extremists, who then use the news to create propaganda videos and material for fueling hatred and recruiting new members to their groups. When the time comes, extremists do not look at political party affiliations, religion, race, color, caste, region, or language before they cause havoc. Everyone is the same for them. Being wary of social media activism is essential for our country’s well-being. We should double-check details from both left-wing and right-wing sources to get a full idea of the story. Most journalists in India today are biased, which is why due diligence is required before endorsing/believing stories.
Before signing off, I wish to share this tweet by Shehla Rashid, which beautifully debunks the communal allegations against India.
Did you know that around 3.6% of the world’s population lives outside their country of origin? The Pew Research Center has come up with some interesting insights on the religious composition of the world’s migrants in their latest survey. Who migrates more? What are the top three origin and destination countries for each community? Which country hosts the most number of immigrants? The survey answers all these pertinent questions and more with detailed insights.
Why do people migrate? The survey reveals several reasons, such as the need to find jobs, to live with other family members, or for better education. However, religion also plays a part in migration. Migrants have often moved to escape persecution. There is also the need to live with people with similar religious beliefs.
To quote the survey, “Many migrants have moved to escape religious persecution or to live among people who hold similar religious beliefs. Often people move and take their religion with them, contributing to gradual changes in their new country’s religious makeup.“
Religious groups most and least likely to migrate
Hindus tend to migrate less as compared to other religious groups and Christians are most likely to migrate from their place of origin.
As per the survey, “Christians are the largest migrant group, but Jews are most likely to have migrated.”
The top source and destination country for Christian migrants
To quote the survey, “Christians make up a much larger share of migrants (47%) than they do of the world’s population (30%). Mexico is the most common origin country for Christian migrants, and the United States is their most common destination.“
The top source and destination country for Muslim migrants
In relation to Muslim migrants, the survey says, “Muslims account for a slightly larger share of migrants (29%) than of the world’s population (25%). Syria is the most common origin country for Muslim migrants, and Muslims often move to places in the Middle East-North Africa region, like Saudi Arabia.” Interestingly, Muslims tend to prefer migrating to “richer” regions that follow their religion. The top destinations for the community are Muslim-majority nations, such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and UAE.
The top source and destination country for Hindu migrants
As per the survey, “Hindus are starkly underrepresented among international migrants (5%) compared with their share of the global population (15%). India is both the most common country of origin and the top destination for Hindu migrants.” Hindu migrants to India are most likely to originate from neighboring regions like Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, where minorities face severe persecution. This is evident from statistics indicating a drastic decrease in minority numbers within these regions over the years.
The Pew Survey offers a lot more detailed insights, so I would highly recommend going through it.
I recently bought a book titled Kashmir Narratives. It is authored by Colonel Ajay Raina, a retired Indian Army officer. To quote his bio on Amazon, “I am the only son of refugee parents who were young kids when the 1947 bloodied partition saw the creation of two new States of India and Pakistan and when the biggest ever migration of humans took place on this earth. Post my education, I got commissioned into the Indian Army as an officer in 1990 and served till the end of 2017.“
I happened to see his interview somewhere and decided to buy the book. It has a lot of information on Kashmir, focusing on its history, but what I found particularly interesting was the information on the condition of the plebiscite in Kashmir. Before we get to that, let’s understand what a plebiscite is.
What is a plebiscite?
A plebiscite is a direct vote by the people of a region (in this case, Kashmir) on an important public issue. In simpler words, in relation to Kashmir, a plebiscite allows Kashmiris to vote for its future – specifically, whether the region would join India or Pakistan. Interestingly, only these two options were presented, with no option explicitly listed of allowing Kashmir to function as an independent state.
How did the idea of a plebiscite in Kashmir emerge?
The idea of a plebiscite came into effect following the partition of British India in 1947 when the princely states were given the option to join either India or Pakistan.
Jammu and Kashmir initially chose to remain independent. However, after an invasion by tribal forces from Pakistan, Maharaja Hari Singh sought military assistance from India and signed the Instrument of Accession, formally acceding to India. This led to the first Indo-Pakistani war in 1947-48.
To resolve the conflict, the UN intervened, and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) passed Resolution 47 in 1948. This resolution called for a ceasefire, the withdrawal of Pakistani forces from the region, and a significant reduction of Indian army officers. This was to allow for a free and fair plebiscite under UN supervision without any sort of intimidation. The plebiscite was supposed to let the people of Jammu and Kashmir decide their allegiance to either India or Pakistan. The result of the plebiscite would have depended on the majority vote.
However, the plebiscite was never conducted due to several reasons, including disagreements between India and Pakistan over the conditions set by the UN.
Clause (a) in Resolution 47
Most of us aren’t aware of Clause (a) in Resolution 47 passed by the UNSC. It states the condition of a plebiscite in Kashmir. Refer to UN Digital Library – Resolution 47 (1948) – Page 4:
To secure the withdrawal from the State of Jammu and Kashmir of tribesmen and Pakistani nationals not normally resident therein who have entered the State for the purpose of fighting, and to prevent any intrusion into the State of such elements and any furnishing of material aid to those fighting in the State.
The clause requires the complete withdrawal of Pakistani forces from the region. However, this condition remains unfulfilled as militants keep infiltrating the area.
Interestingly, India keeps getting the majority of the blame for not allowing a plebiscite, while it’s clear that Pakistan hasn’t fulfilled its part of the resolution. The resolution placed initial responsibility on Pakistan to withdraw its forces from the region. Only after this withdrawal was India supposed to reduce its military presence. This was then to be followed by a plebiscite. Because neither side fully complied with the conditions set out in the resolution, the situation has remained unresolved.
Final thoughts
I can’t help but wonder, had the “freedom seekers” in Kashmir known about this condition for a plebiscite, would they have applied more force on Pakistani militants to move out of the region? As stated, the first step toward a plebiscite is to ensure the Pakistani militants have withdrawn completely.
The UN has not formally retracted Resolution 47. It is currently in a dormant state. However, there is a possibility of Resolution 47 being re-invoked if the UNSC decides to revisit it.
In Kerala, recently, CPM faced a sharp setback. A state known to be deeply faithful to its comrades turned its back on the communist party in the Lok Sabha Elections. CPM could secure only one seat. This was a big shocker for the party when the results were announced. It wasn’t for the people, however. The grievances were such.
What went wrong? Plenty. Fund mismanagement, corruption, hooliganism, dictatorial tendencies, lack of acknowledgment of mistakes, farmer deaths, pension delays, etc. The list seems endless. A sort of arrogance had crept in after CPM’s second consecutive term. It was reflected in their attitude towards commoners and overall leadership. People started catching on to their lies and false promises.
How did Malayalees react? Through their votes. CPM could secure only one seat in Kerala in the recent Lok Sabha Elections 2024, facing an overall 2-4% dip in vote share. They suffered a severe blow even in their strongholds like Kasaragod, Kannur, Vadakara, and Palakkad.
Kerala is a prime example of how to get your revenge against political parties if they fail to meet your standards. No freebies were promised in the state, so the votes were cast purely on the basis of the political party’s performance.
The only way a common man in India can express his disappointment towards political parties is through his votes. Yet, Indians do not show up when the time comes. Excuses pop up, “We have work,” “We don’t want to travel,” “What’s going to happen, anyway?” Due to this, the parties that were a disappointment continue to be in power.
The point I am trying to make is concerning West Bengal. The government had already shown its true colors before the election. They tried to cover up the Sandeshkali rapes and protected the party member from arrest. Police officers were attacked when they went to arrest the party member. Hooliganism was its max. Everyone witnessed it. Yet, the party won again.
Someone said if an election were to be held tomorrow in West Bengal, TMC would again win. This is unfortunate. In such cases, is the government alone to blame? Aren’t we the citizens enabling such a behavior, too? TMC’s supporters turned up en masse to save and vote for the party while the others relaxed at home in the sweltering heat. There was post-poll violence in the state because TMC members were furious they did not secure enough votes as before. Yet, somehow, we refused to acknowledge what we saw. We continued to believe the words of the party who was placing the blame on everyone else except itself. We celebrated the “saving” of democracy, unaware that the party we voted for was no better.
Indians are expressing their anger on social media and the streets now, but they forget they can do it the Kerala way too. When the time comes, hit where it hurts – through your votes. This is the only way to get a political party to introspect and correct themselves. It is a powerful tool. Use it.
The Monkey Dilemma 
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