I feel a great part of your investing journey lies in being indifferent. Indifferent to how the market reacts, indifferent to external influences such as your family and friends. I am slowly learning not to check the market trends too often, not to get swayed by euphoria or unwarranted skepticism. Of course, this works for me because I am not in direct equity. Those who are invested in stocks might have to be more vigilant?
Anyway, in continuation with my previous post, here’s the second part of some of the best investing quotes from the Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham. I feel a lot of people missed out on Graham’s advice on being safe in investing. We often hear from investment gurus how we should invest more in equity when we are younger. But this book actually tells you to keep your own liabilities and responsibilities in mind before you invest more than you can chew. His whole book is about putting your safety, lifestyle, and goals first. A young investor can be conservative too if in debt or caught up with responsibilities. Life happens and there is no one-size-fits-all kind of investment. Keeping your risk profile in mind before investing is key and Graham actually digs deep into that.
Since the profits that companies can earn are finite, the price that investors should be willing to pay for stocks must also be finite. Think of it this way: Michael Jordan may well have been the greatest basketball player of all time, and he pulled fans into Chicago Stadium like a giant electromagnet. The Chicago Bulls got a bargain by paying Jordan up to $34 million a year to bounce a big leather ball around a wooden floor. But that does not mean the Bulls would have been justified paying him $340 million, or $3.4 billion, or $34 billion, per season.
The only indisputable truth that the past teaches us is that the future will always surprise us—always! And the corollary to that law of financial history is that the markets will most brutally surprise the very people who are most certain that their views about the future are right. Staying humble about your forecasting powers, as Graham did, will keep you from risking too much on a view of the future that may well turn out to be wrong.
A cynic once told G. K. Chesterton, the British novelist and essayist, “Blessed is he who expecteth nothing, for he shall not be disappointed.” Chesterton’s rejoinder? “Blessed is he who expecteth nothing, for he shall enjoy everything.”
The punches you miss are the ones that wear you out.
—Boxing trainer Angelo Dundee
For the aggressive as well as the defensive investor, what you don’t do is as important to your success as what you do.
Buying a bond only for its yield is like getting married only for lust. If the thing that attracted you in the first place dries up, you’ll find yourself asking, “What else is there?” When the answer is “Nothing,” spouses and bondholders alike end up with broken hearts.
The lesson is clear: Don’t just do something, stand there. It’s time for everyone to acknowledge that the term “long-term investor” is redundant. A long-term investor is the only kind of investor there is. Someone who can’t hold on to stocks for more than a few months at a time is doomed to end up not as a victor but as a victim.
Unfortunately, for every IPO like Microsoft that turns out to be a big winner, there are thousands of losers. The psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky have shown when humans estimate the likelihood or frequency of an event, we make that judgment based not on how often the event has actually occurred, but on how vivid the past examples are. We all want to buy “the next Microsoft”—precisely because we know we missed buying the first Microsoft. But we conveniently overlook the fact that most other IPOs were terrible investments.
The large companies thus have a double advantage over the others. First, they have the resources in capital and brain power to carry them through adversity and back to a satisfactory earnings base. Second, the market is likely to respond with reasonable speed to any improvement shown.
Actually, the typical middle-sized listed company is a large one when compared with the average privately owned business. There is no sound reason why such companies should not continue indefinitely in operation, undergoing the vicissitudes characteristic of our economy but earning on the whole a fair return on their invested capital.
It requires a great deal of boldness and a great deal of caution to make a great fortune; and when you have got it, it requires ten times as much wit to keep it.Nathan Mayer Rothschild
So how many of the Forbes 400 fortunes from 1982 remained on the list 20 years later? Only 64 of the original members—a measly 16%—were still on the list in 2002. By keeping all their eggs in the one basket that had gotten them onto the list in the first place—once booming industries like oil and gas, or computer hardware, or basic manufacturing—all the other original members fell away. When hard times hit, none of these people—despite all the huge advantages that great wealth can bring—were properly prepared. They could only stand by and wince at the sickening crunch as the constantly changing economy crushed their only basket and all their eggs.